Thursday, August 28, 2008
by The Mulligan Team
Courtesy of Alan Greer
Bank of America
Mortgage Loan Officer
Ph (843) 285-3031
Last Week
Mortgage rates remained low as oil prices have stabilized and concern over inflation has subsided.
Initial Jobless Claims were reported at 432,000, which was basically in line with expectations. The more closely watched four-week average of new state filings rose to 445,750, the highest since the recession of 2001. The report, while looking bad, is being somewhat discounted as a new federal program continues to skew the new claims in recent weeks.
This Week
Mortgage application volume rose less than 1 percent during the week ended Aug. 22, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly application survey. The trade group's application index rose to 421.6 during the week, from 419.3 a week earlier, which had been the lowest index level in nearly eight years. Refinance volume rose 0.3 percent, while purchase volume increased 0.6 percent during the week. Refinance volume accounted for 35.2 percent of all applications. The index peaked at 1,856.7 during the week ending May 30, 2003, at the height of the housing boom.
Americans felt better about the economy in August as a barometer of sentiment posted the biggest rise in two years amid falling gas prices. Two reports suggested a bottom could be nearing for the housing market, but economists caution that it's too early to proclaim that the worst is over.
The Conference Board, a private research group, said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index rose to 56.9 from a revised 51.9 in July. That's the largest gain since August 2006 and was above the 53 expected by economists surveyed by Thomson/IFR. It's also the second month in a row that sentiment improved, after a six-month slide since January, but it remains about half what it was a year ago, and worries about the job market persisted.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index released Tuesday showed home prices dropped a record 15.4 percent during the second quarter. But the rate of single-family home price declines slowed from May to June, a possible silver lining.
Sales of new homes rose in July but still fell short of economists' expectations, and prices continued to sink. The July increase followed a sharp downward revision to June's sales.
"Consumer confidence readings suggest that the economy remains stuck in neutral but may be showing signs of improvement by early next year," Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board Consumer Research Center, said in a statement.
While economists say they can't underestimate the relief among consumers to see gas prices come down, Americans are still faced with a number of challenges as they head into the crucial fall and holiday selling seasons, from a weak job market to tight credit conditions and the housing slump.
"It's encouraging to see the benefit of lower gas prices helping consumers a bit," Thayer said. But he noted that there's still a lot of worry out there. As for the housing market, he cautioned that mortgage rates have not come down and tighter lending standards could stall any housing recovery.
Coming Up
- The Federal Reserve meets again on September 16th. Will they raise rates or not?
- Will the Government bail out Freddie and Fannie soon? If it happens, what will the impact be? What if it doesn’t happen?
- Fannie and Freddie will enact new Pricing guidelines on October 1st . New major changes will have big impact on home buyers. More to come on that in the weeks to come.
- FHA will eliminate seller funded down payment assistance on October 1st.
- FHA will increase its MIP premium charged to homebuyers from 1.5% to 1.75% for the upfront premium October 1st.